HH H Heuristics Global Polycrisis Overview

Data & Sources · Page 5

Every figure in this report, with its source and year.

Headline figures follow the latest authoritative release available in mid-2026. Projections are labelled as projections. Where a source was consulted through a summary page, the register points to the underlying report.

30+ authoritative sources 40+ headline data points 5 domains tabled

Headline Data

Climate and cryosphere

IndicatorValueYearSource
Global mean temperature anomaly vs 1850–19001.55°C (±0.13)2024WMO
Long-term warming (decadal mean)~1.3°C2024WMO
Ocean heat content increase, upper 2000 m+16 ZJ2023–24WMO / IAP-CAS
Warm-water coral thermal tipping point1.4°C2025Global Tipping Points 2025
Amazon dieback risk line<2°C2025Global Tipping Points 2025
AMOC collapse risk line<2°C2025Global Tipping Points 2025
AMOC tipping window2025–20952024van Westen et al., Science Advances
Arctic warming vs global average since 1979~4×2022Rantanen et al.
Permafrost carbon vs atmosphere~2×2021IPCC AR6 WGI

Earth system

IndicatorValueYearSource
Species threatened with extinction~1,000,0002019IPBES
Native species abundance decline, major land habitats≥20%2019IPBES
Amphibian species threatened>40%2019IPBES
Reef-forming corals threatened~33%2019IPBES
Monitored wildlife population decline73%1970–2020WWF Living Planet 2024
Ocean surface pH change since pre-industrial−0.1 (≈+30% acidity)2024NOAA
Ocean dissolved oxygen decline since 1950s~2%2019IUCN
Anoxic ocean water volume since 1960s2019IUCN
Low-oxygen coastal sites reported45 → ~700pre-1960s → 2011IUCN
Land that became permanently drier77.6%1990–2020UNCCD
Dryland expansion4.3M km²1990–2020UNCCD
Global land classified as dryland (excl. Antarctica)40.6%2020UNCCD
People projected in drylands by 2100 (high emissions)up to 5B2100 proj.UNCCD
Countries under extreme water stress252023WRI Aqueduct
People under high water stress ≥1 month/year~4B2023WRI Aqueduct
GDP exposed to high water stress by 2050$70T (31%)2050 proj.WRI Aqueduct
Plastic waste generated annually~400M t2023UNEP
Plastic entering the ocean annually~11M t2020Pew/UNEP

Secondary impacts

IndicatorValueYearSource
Extreme fire increase by 2030 / 2050 / 2100+14% / +30% / +50%2022 proj.UNEP
Canada area burned~18.5M ha2023CIFFC / CAMS
Canada wildfire carbon emissions~480 Mt CO₂2023CAMS
Natural catastrophe total losses$320bn2024Munich Re
Natural catastrophe insured losses$140bn2024Munich Re
Non-peak peril losses (floods, wildfire, storms)$136bn / $67bn insured2024Munich Re
Hurricane Helene$56bn / $16bn insured2024Munich Re
Hurricane Milton$38bn / $25bn insured2024Munich Re
Valencia floods$11bn / $4.2bn insured2024Munich Re
Typhoon Yagi$14bn / $1.6bn insured2024Munich Re
Natural disaster deaths~11,0002024Munich Re

Systemic domains

IndicatorValueYearSource
People without electricity750M2023IEA SDG7
Projected without electricity, stated policies645M2030 proj.IEA SDG7
People without clean cooking~2.1B2022WHO
Bacterial AMR associated deaths>4.7M2021WHO / GBD
Lab-confirmed infections resistant to antibiotics1 in 62023WHO
AMR treatment cost to 2035$412bn/yrproj.WHO / GLG
AMR productivity losses to 2035$443bn/yrproj.WHO / GLG
IDA-eligible country external debt service$96.2bn2023World Bank IDR 2024
Forcibly displaced people122.1M2025 (Apr)UNHCR
Extreme poverty at $2.15/day831M2025World Bank
People facing hunger645M2025FAO SOFI 2026
Workers exposed to excessive heat>2.4B2024ILO

Source Register

Where every figure comes from

  1. WMO, "WMO confirms 2024 as warmest year on record at about 1.55°C above pre-industrial level," 10 January 2025 — wmo.int
  2. Global Tipping Points Report 2025, University of Exeter Global Systems Institute — global-tipping-points.org
  3. IPBES, "Media Release: Nature's Dangerous Decline 'Unprecedented'; Species Extinction Rates 'Accelerating'," 6 May 2019 — ipbes.net
  4. IUCN, "Ocean deoxygenation," issues brief, December 2019 — iucn.org
  5. NOAA Ocean Acidification Program — oceanacidification.noaa.gov
  6. UNCCD, "The Global Threat of Drying Lands: Regional and global aridity trends and future projections," 2024 — unccd.int
  7. WRI Aqueduct, "25 Countries, Housing One-Quarter of the Population, Face Extremely High Water Stress," 16 August 2023 — wri.org
  8. Munich Re, "Natural disasters 2024: Climate change is showing its claws," 9 January 2025 — munichre.com
  9. IEA, "SDG7: Data and Projections — Access to electricity," 15 November 2024 — iea.org
  10. WHO, "Antimicrobial resistance," fact sheet, 16 July 2026 — who.int
  11. UNEP, "Spreading like Wildfire: The Rising Threat of Extraordinary Landscape Fires," 2022 — unep.org
  12. Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service, global wildfire reviews, 2023–2025 — atmosphere.copernicus.eu
  13. World Bank, "International Debt Report 2024" — worldbank.org
  14. UNHCR, "Global Trends: Forced Displacement in 2024," via ReliefWeb, 12 June 2025 — reliefweb.int
  15. World Bank, "Poverty Overview" (Poverty, Prosperity, and Planet Report 2026) — worldbank.org
  16. FAO, "The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026" — fao.org
  17. WHO, "Household air pollution," fact sheet, 16 December 2025 — who.int
  18. ILO / WHO-WMO, heat stress and worker exposure figures, 2024–2025 — who.int
  19. Richardson et al., "Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries," Science Advances, 2023 — science.org
  20. van Westen, Kliphuis & Dijkstra, "Physics-based early warning signal shows that AMOC is on tipping course," Science Advances, 2024 — science.org
  21. Rantanen et al., "The Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the globe since 1979," Communications Earth & Environment, 2022 — nature.com
  22. WWF, "Living Planet Report 2024" — livingplanet.panda.org
  23. ICCI, "State of the Cryosphere 2024 — Lost Ice, Global Damage" — iccinet.org
  24. Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change, 2024 Report — lancetcountdown.org

Note on verification

Figures were compiled in August 2026 from the latest available releases. Where a source publishes recurring updates (WMO, WHO fact sheets, Munich Re, IEA), the register cites the release used. Two sources — the UNCCD drying-lands report and the CAMS wildfire reviews — are cited through their institutional home pages because the underlying report URLs have moved since publication; the figures used are the widely reported headline values from those reports.

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The full argument, from the six-node system map to the loops that drive it, is on the first page.

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