Headline Data
Climate and cryosphere
| Indicator | Value | Year | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Global mean temperature anomaly vs 1850–1900 | 1.55°C (±0.13) | 2024 | WMO |
| Long-term warming (decadal mean) | ~1.3°C | 2024 | WMO |
| Ocean heat content increase, upper 2000 m | +16 ZJ | 2023–24 | WMO / IAP-CAS |
| Warm-water coral thermal tipping point | 1.4°C | 2025 | Global Tipping Points 2025 |
| Amazon dieback risk line | <2°C | 2025 | Global Tipping Points 2025 |
| AMOC collapse risk line | <2°C | 2025 | Global Tipping Points 2025 |
| AMOC tipping window | 2025–2095 | 2024 | van Westen et al., Science Advances |
| Arctic warming vs global average since 1979 | ~4× | 2022 | Rantanen et al. |
| Permafrost carbon vs atmosphere | ~2× | 2021 | IPCC AR6 WGI |
Earth system
| Indicator | Value | Year | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Species threatened with extinction | ~1,000,000 | 2019 | IPBES |
| Native species abundance decline, major land habitats | ≥20% | 2019 | IPBES |
| Amphibian species threatened | >40% | 2019 | IPBES |
| Reef-forming corals threatened | ~33% | 2019 | IPBES |
| Monitored wildlife population decline | 73% | 1970–2020 | WWF Living Planet 2024 |
| Ocean surface pH change since pre-industrial | −0.1 (≈+30% acidity) | 2024 | NOAA |
| Ocean dissolved oxygen decline since 1950s | ~2% | 2019 | IUCN |
| Anoxic ocean water volume since 1960s | 4× | 2019 | IUCN |
| Low-oxygen coastal sites reported | 45 → ~700 | pre-1960s → 2011 | IUCN |
| Land that became permanently drier | 77.6% | 1990–2020 | UNCCD |
| Dryland expansion | 4.3M km² | 1990–2020 | UNCCD |
| Global land classified as dryland (excl. Antarctica) | 40.6% | 2020 | UNCCD |
| People projected in drylands by 2100 (high emissions) | up to 5B | 2100 proj. | UNCCD |
| Countries under extreme water stress | 25 | 2023 | WRI Aqueduct |
| People under high water stress ≥1 month/year | ~4B | 2023 | WRI Aqueduct |
| GDP exposed to high water stress by 2050 | $70T (31%) | 2050 proj. | WRI Aqueduct |
| Plastic waste generated annually | ~400M t | 2023 | UNEP |
| Plastic entering the ocean annually | ~11M t | 2020 | Pew/UNEP |
Secondary impacts
| Indicator | Value | Year | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Extreme fire increase by 2030 / 2050 / 2100 | +14% / +30% / +50% | 2022 proj. | UNEP |
| Canada area burned | ~18.5M ha | 2023 | CIFFC / CAMS |
| Canada wildfire carbon emissions | ~480 Mt CO₂ | 2023 | CAMS |
| Natural catastrophe total losses | $320bn | 2024 | Munich Re |
| Natural catastrophe insured losses | $140bn | 2024 | Munich Re |
| Non-peak peril losses (floods, wildfire, storms) | $136bn / $67bn insured | 2024 | Munich Re |
| Hurricane Helene | $56bn / $16bn insured | 2024 | Munich Re |
| Hurricane Milton | $38bn / $25bn insured | 2024 | Munich Re |
| Valencia floods | $11bn / $4.2bn insured | 2024 | Munich Re |
| Typhoon Yagi | $14bn / $1.6bn insured | 2024 | Munich Re |
| Natural disaster deaths | ~11,000 | 2024 | Munich Re |
Systemic domains
| Indicator | Value | Year | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| People without electricity | 750M | 2023 | IEA SDG7 |
| Projected without electricity, stated policies | 645M | 2030 proj. | IEA SDG7 |
| People without clean cooking | ~2.1B | 2022 | WHO |
| Bacterial AMR associated deaths | >4.7M | 2021 | WHO / GBD |
| Lab-confirmed infections resistant to antibiotics | 1 in 6 | 2023 | WHO |
| AMR treatment cost to 2035 | $412bn/yr | proj. | WHO / GLG |
| AMR productivity losses to 2035 | $443bn/yr | proj. | WHO / GLG |
| IDA-eligible country external debt service | $96.2bn | 2023 | World Bank IDR 2024 |
| Forcibly displaced people | 122.1M | 2025 (Apr) | UNHCR |
| Extreme poverty at $2.15/day | 831M | 2025 | World Bank |
| People facing hunger | 645M | 2025 | FAO SOFI 2026 |
| Workers exposed to excessive heat | >2.4B | 2024 | ILO |
Source Register
Where every figure comes from
- WMO, "WMO confirms 2024 as warmest year on record at about 1.55°C above pre-industrial level," 10 January 2025 — wmo.int
- Global Tipping Points Report 2025, University of Exeter Global Systems Institute — global-tipping-points.org
- IPBES, "Media Release: Nature's Dangerous Decline 'Unprecedented'; Species Extinction Rates 'Accelerating'," 6 May 2019 — ipbes.net
- IUCN, "Ocean deoxygenation," issues brief, December 2019 — iucn.org
- NOAA Ocean Acidification Program — oceanacidification.noaa.gov
- UNCCD, "The Global Threat of Drying Lands: Regional and global aridity trends and future projections," 2024 — unccd.int
- WRI Aqueduct, "25 Countries, Housing One-Quarter of the Population, Face Extremely High Water Stress," 16 August 2023 — wri.org
- Munich Re, "Natural disasters 2024: Climate change is showing its claws," 9 January 2025 — munichre.com
- IEA, "SDG7: Data and Projections — Access to electricity," 15 November 2024 — iea.org
- WHO, "Antimicrobial resistance," fact sheet, 16 July 2026 — who.int
- UNEP, "Spreading like Wildfire: The Rising Threat of Extraordinary Landscape Fires," 2022 — unep.org
- Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service, global wildfire reviews, 2023–2025 — atmosphere.copernicus.eu
- World Bank, "International Debt Report 2024" — worldbank.org
- UNHCR, "Global Trends: Forced Displacement in 2024," via ReliefWeb, 12 June 2025 — reliefweb.int
- World Bank, "Poverty Overview" (Poverty, Prosperity, and Planet Report 2026) — worldbank.org
- FAO, "The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026" — fao.org
- WHO, "Household air pollution," fact sheet, 16 December 2025 — who.int
- ILO / WHO-WMO, heat stress and worker exposure figures, 2024–2025 — who.int
- Richardson et al., "Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries," Science Advances, 2023 — science.org
- van Westen, Kliphuis & Dijkstra, "Physics-based early warning signal shows that AMOC is on tipping course," Science Advances, 2024 — science.org
- Rantanen et al., "The Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the globe since 1979," Communications Earth & Environment, 2022 — nature.com
- WWF, "Living Planet Report 2024" — livingplanet.panda.org
- ICCI, "State of the Cryosphere 2024 — Lost Ice, Global Damage" — iccinet.org
- Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change, 2024 Report — lancetcountdown.org
Note on verification
Figures were compiled in August 2026 from the latest available releases. Where a source publishes recurring updates (WMO, WHO fact sheets, Munich Re, IEA), the register cites the release used. Two sources — the UNCCD drying-lands report and the CAMS wildfire reviews — are cited through their institutional home pages because the underlying report URLs have moved since publication; the figures used are the widely reported headline values from those reports.
Return to the overview
The full argument, from the six-node system map to the loops that drive it, is on the first page.
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